Irrational Exuberance #(2021)
- Title: Irrational Exuberance
- Author: Robert J. Shiller
- ISBN: 9780691166261
- Page: 412
- Format: Hardcover
[PDF] Irrational Exuberance | by ✓ Robert J. Shiller - Irrational Exuberance, Irrational Exuberance In this revised updated and expanded edition of his New York Times bestseller Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Shiller who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles cautions that signs of i
Recent Comments "Irrational Exuberance"
I really battled to get into this book I didn t enjoy it at all We all know that market bubbles exist and I really don t think Robert Shiller added much to the discussion I will no doubt come under fire here from all the fans out there This was summed up for me in the last chapter when he listed things that could go wrong in the future He listed every conceivable scenario in the world While I agree that you need to consider all possibilities and investing is about probabilities, it is in my opin [...]
In the 2009 e book version, Shiller wrote a very modest introduction about the Great Recession If he wanted to be a bit succinct, he could just have written I fucking told you so A book in the long tradition started by Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds, with a less fancy prose style and uses of the price earnings ratio It was rather astonishing how right Shiller was Although maybe it was the publication of this book which led to the crash of the e commerce bubble of 200 [...]
This is a book that needs to be reread in order for the points to absorbed.Shiller starts out with three chapters that present statistics showing that stocks and real estate are not investments that people can count on to earn a good long run return He shows that if people got into the market at the wrong time they could end up having to wait for a long time before the value of stocks returned to the price that people paid for the stocks He shows similar statistics for real estate.In the chapter [...]
This book serves as an awakening call from the presentwhiff of extravagant expectation, if not irrational exuberance, in the air People are optimistic about the stock market There is a lack of sobriety about its downside and the consequences that would ensue as a result The author advances that we need to know if the price level of the stock market today, tomorrow, or any other day is a sensible reflection of economic reality, just as we need to know as individuals what we have in our bank accou [...]
Two subjects I love finance and psychology Which is called behavioral finance, but whatever All I can say is, I read the wrong edition Ugh The third edition is Shiller s grand middle finger to the markets after the crash of 08 09 and subsequent recession I should have read that instead, but this was a solid, still relevant and eerily prophetic blast from the past.
I read this because I got to have dinner with Shiller recently and I wanted a reminder of his theories I wonder if it s outdated or it s still true that markets are over priced I think he s absolutely right that they re not efficient, but is it time to sell He said he didn t know.
I very much enjoyed this book It may seem a bit dry to a non economist and admittedly even to me, an economist , but it offers a brilliant overview on financial economics and gives you a good idea why Shiller was awarded the Nobel prize in 2013.It also offers a nice perspective on the economic climate between recession as the second edition was published in 2005 the third ed is out now, 2015 and so it contains new material compared to the very first edition that came out just before the bubble T [...]
Shiller is rare among economists both for his sense of history and his openness to engaging with other disciplines qualities that he shares with Thomas Piketty In the first edition of this book, published in 2000, Shiller argued that the stock market was in the midst of a bubble What is now known as the Dot Com Bubble ended just as it was published In the second edition, published in 2005, Shiller argued that the housing market was overvalued In this edition, he argues that the stock market is a [...]
A little dry for me I actually ended up skimming through most of it because you could get the main point of each chapter in each chapters final paragraph I can see why this is a popular book, as Shiller discusses a lot of history about the stock market However, I do not feel as though I ve really learned any new aspects about the markets, besides some small details of history discussed.If you re reading this book then you probably already know that there s to the stock market than luck, or the [...]
One of the best books on investments ever written I wish I had read this when I was younger, rather than reading books like the Dow 20,000 etc Painful lessons learnt.
This was pretty interesting and well written The 3rd edition, updated in 2014 includes material on the 2008 mortgage driven crisis and even current state of the economy in 2014.Shiller speaks very lightly he doesn t say The economy is going to go bust He says his CAPE ratio for the markets a 10 year average PE has only been higher at 2 times in history 1929 and 2000 And that was 2014 That s scary but you just can t predict the future We could have a booming economy and stock market for another 1 [...]
The book gets its name and theme from the buzzwords used in Alan Greenspan s speech as the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board in 1996 It focuses on how the mood of irrational exuberance is pushing up the stock prices and stretching the valuations and how the levels of the US Stock markets are way above rational With thorough research and groundbreaking findings, Prof Shiller convinces us about his theory of the unprecedented bubble P E ratios were dramatically out of line with historical p [...]
A read that supplemented my fledgling knowledge of finance I had picked up some books from the library on related topics, and thought this would be a nice supplement to try to put my understanding to the test and triangulate some lessons learned and smarten up about what s going on when the DOW is above 23,000, among other thingsIn short, it s is a dry read, and the author s academic background exposition style comes through however, in a world of irrational exuberance, where communication happe [...]
This book did not tell me a lot Humans are irrational creatures Our financial market shares in this irrationality, despite what experts want to tell us Thus, we should try to hedge our bets as much as possible.
Robert Shiller is my favorite person to see interviewed on economics He chooses his words carefully, always saying the economy is unpredictable while being heralded as a prophet No matter how many times he stares into a camera and tells people he has never predicted the future of the economy, people still believe the myths Like Kurt Cobain yelling songs about how much he hates his job and fans while growing popular by the hour.So I ve been wanting to read this book for years I ve read some of S [...]
An excellent inbetween book Not too academic and dry but also not too simplistic The most complete treatment of bubbles I ve read.Shiller is a great empiricist, and tests out efficient markets hypothesis through various econometric tests and survey data Shiller actually asks investors through extensive survey data to see what their motivations and logic is, a pretty simple but radical move from assuming them to be rationally calculating agents Through this data Shiller shows how irrational, and [...]
The third edition of Irrational Exuberance by Shiller analyses and explains the influence of structural, cultural, and psychological factors in the creation of bubbles The book reads as the mix of an academic economic research paper and a popular non fiction book, and contains an abundance of useful references to prior research Shiller does not shy away from expressing his own view throughout the book This is particularly useful for the reader without an advanced economic background the figures [...]
Perhaps I m giving him an extra star just for winning the Nobel Prize Shiller is clearly a brilliant man and this book is well researched However, I m not sure we learn anything We ve known of booms and busts for a long time This book is a discussion about the efficient market theory and why markets really aren t efficient at all I still hold to the theory myself, knowing that it is clearly wrong at times for all the reasons found in this book I did get hung up on a few points He mocks the idea [...]
Irrational exuberance was a book I had been wanting to read for a very long time, so the question was was the book worth the excitement I felt when the third edition was finally released Well, yes and no There are a few chapters that I thought were absolutely essential, namely the chapters in the first 100 pages of the book, including the introduction The second part, in which Shiller makes strange comparisons I thought the epidemic metaphor was not entirely appropriate , and discusses various, [...]
My review is both about the contents and how I got this book into my collection This the most valuable book in my collection Other books have a higher monetary value but this book has personal value My copy is a first edition first imprint that was a birthday gift from my family The book was bought from someone in Spain online, got temporarily lost in Argentina, came back to Spain, arrived in Australia Prof Shillers secretary was called at Princeton to see if it could be autographed She called o [...]
With Shiller sharing a lot of time in the news, I decided to read the book that made him famous.The book is a great collection of information on how the assumption that investors are rational is false He decimates the idea that individual investors make rational decisions through an exhaustive list of examples, backed by verifiable data.The downside of the book, is in how it is written The author makes use of references, and still decides to put the exact same information in the reference into t [...]
Schiller s book is important for the weight that his name puts behind the case that investors need to understand the real risks involved in the assets that they buy and should eschew the comforting but simplistic conventional wisdom that claims that markets are always efficient, that x always goes up or Y always outperforms a, b and c in the long run, and for the breadth of the research that he put into making the case The book is also quite readable I read it over the course of a few sittings a [...]
Shiller discusses the nature of speculative bubble and challenges the market efficiency The first two parts are quite juicy As a needy reader, I could always find something to chew on The first part discusses the potential precipitating factors for the booming stock market such as the baby booming, the internet boom and the rise of gambling opportunities After that, he says the feedback loop mechanism amplifies these factors The second part, he states that it is the advent of new era and the new [...]
Robert J Shiller s Irrational Exuberance challenges the conventional thinking on financial markets, especially the efficient markets theory Shiller examines the role of media, the herd mentality, psychology, as well as so called new era philosophy in shaping the beliefs and behavior of investors Shiller does not claim that financial markets are completely random there are certain patterns that can be predicted and utilized but markets do not always reflect the correct price of an asset Moreover, [...]
I ll focus on what I see as the book s key strengths clarity and long term perspective As an investor it s difficult to recognize a bubble when you re in it, and the book provides context to understand where we are in the larger scheme of things I read Graham s Intelligent Investor just prior to reading this, and the this adds robust layers to Graham s focus on varying investment conditions and expected returns over the longer term I guess the central theme is that asset classes will become over [...]
The first review I read before reading this book stated Shiller clearly thinks he is the smartest man in the room, and he just might be right is easily my first impression after having finished this book His analysis of the psychology behind finance and economics is very interesting and thought provoking His dismantling of the efficient market theory was thorough Mostly easy to follow even though I have little technical background in economics He began to loose me in the first pages of his Nobel [...]
Full of many interesting ideas related to behavioral finance and economics though if you ve already read Animal Spirits, you will have seen several of the same already After the introduction to this new edition, I was hoping for some insight on bond markets specifically, but there was little to be had in the main text There were also no particularly specific policy prescriptions for dealing with irrational exuberance in speculative markets, mostly just a general suggestion that the various pote [...]
It is really eye opening to see that while most of the financial community was loosing their heads over the new era economics, Prof Shiller saw through this and published this book just before the dot com bubble predicting it would inevitably happen That being said, it is slightly dry as the professor just puts out a lot of facts As some of the other reviews have mentioned, it is somewhere in between a dry academic paper and a possibly interesting book.
One of the few things that Shiller was right about, although the formulas and methods that he still continues to use to this day are having less and less relevance on the economy He was right about the irrational exuberance of the market at the time of the writings, and for most of the right reasons, it is just that those methods that were used are a bit sketchy and are having holes poked in them now on an almost weekly basis.
I m a fan of Shiller s he s a classy, disciplined and modest economist and fabulous teacher This book is dry but impressive in the research precision and diligence it reflects as well as the foresight to what happened in 2008 it alluded to Important for investors and economists to read at some point.
[PDF] Irrational Exuberance | by ✓ Robert J. Shiller 412 Robert J. Shiller